The market is showing signals that a new altcoin season may be starting: money is moving out of Bitcoin, altcoin market cap is rising sharply, and liquidity is slowly improving. In this picture, Ethereum (ETH) remains the key switch: when ETH takes the lead, the whole altcoin ecosystem usually follows.
Macro Picture and Capital Flow
Altcoin market cap has reached over $1.7 trillion, close to the peak in November 2021.
Source: Tradingview
The Altcoin Season Index has climbed to 82 out of 100, showing that most altcoins are outperforming BTC. However, in a bull market there are usually several altcoin seasons, each lasting only a few weeks to a few months, with the peak phase averaging around 17 to 30 days. This means the current signals show a shift of capital, but it may not last as long as the full bull market.
Source: https://www.blockchaincenter.net
ETH Takes the Lead
ETH is the largest altcoin by market cap and the base layer for smart contracts, DeFi, stablecoins, and Layer-2 networks. It is also a strategic asset for institutions, while retail traders need ETH to trade other altcoins.
History shows that when the ETH/BTC ratio goes up, money often flows out of BTC into the Ethereum ecosystem, starting an altcoin season. Right now, ETH/BTC is recovering, supporting the idea of capital rotation.
Source: Tradingview
ETH/USD Technical Analysis
On the weekly chart, ETH/USD has shown a strong rally since April 2025. The price has already broken above the $4,100 resistance and is now testing the major resistance level near $4,890, the high from November 8, 2021.
Source: IUX
On the daily chart, ETH/USD is moving sideways inside a converging triangle, signaling a possible breakout ahead:
- Resistance: $4,800 – $4,950
- Support: $4,070 – $4,120
- Deeper support zone: $3,370 – $3,530
- The RSI is around 55, showing a neutral state, no clear overbought or oversold signal yet.
Source: IUX
Possible Scenarios:
- If ETH/USD breaks and holds above $4,800 – $4,950, it could trigger a new rally.
- If ETH/USD retests $4,130 and holds, the price may bounce back to challenge resistance.
- In the worst case, ETH/USD could fall back toward the $3,530 zone.
Drivers and Risks
- Bullish drivers may include: Fed policy easing, better on-chain liquidity, clearer regulation (stablecoins, liquid staking), and continued institutional inflows into ETH.
- Risks include: weaker macro conditions, unfavorable regulation changes, or Bitcoin regaining its “safe haven” role, which would weaken ETH/BTC.
Key Points for Traders
Current market conditions are setting up for an altcoin season, but this is still just the beginning, and it revolves around ETH. Traders should watch ETH/BTC, altcoin dominance, and ETH/USD price action to better understand the path ahead.
