Gold prices have surged in 2025 not only because of inflation, but also due to the growing pressure from the U.S. government’s “debt addiction”, a factor that’s shaking global confidence in Treasury bonds.
How much debt does America owe?
As of September 2025, the U.S. national debt has exceeded $37.5 trillion, equal to more than 123% of GDP.
In 2008, when the global financial crisis hit, the number was only around $10 trillion. In less than 20 years, U.S. debt has risen almost four times.
Figure 1: U.S. Debt and GDP – Source: TradingView
Not only has total debt risen, but interest payments have also reached nearly $1.2 trillion per year, surpassing defense spending.
This shows that Washington is becoming increasingly dependent on borrowing new money to pay old interest.
Figure 2: U.S. Interest Payments vs. Defense Spending – Source: TradingView
When debt grows, yields rise and gold benefits
To fund its growing debt, the U.S. government issues more Treasury bonds. As the supply of bonds increases, yields must rise to attract buyers. But higher yields also mean higher borrowing costs, creating a vicious cycle of debt - interest - more debt.
When confidence in America’s ability to manage its debt weakens, global investors turn to gold, a real asset that can’t be printed and doesn’t depend on anyone’s promise to repay.
Figure 3: U.S. Debt vs. Gold Price – Source: TradingView
Technical Analysis
Since early 2025, gold has risen more than 50%, confirming a strong bullish trend.
On the weekly chart, gold has climbed for seven consecutive weeks, breaking above the 0.786 Fibonacci extension and moving toward the 1.0 level near $4,000/oz.
At this zone, a short-term correction is likely as the RSI enters the overbought area.
Figure 4: Gold Weekly Chart – Source: IUX
On the daily chart, RSI has also reached its high level of the year.
- Major resistance: $4,000
- Near support: $3,500
- Deeper support: $3,200
Figure 5: Gold Daily Chart – Source: IUX
For medium-term investors, it may be wise to take partial profit around the $4,000 level and wait for a clearer pullback signal before re-entering or adjusting positions.
