Gold keeps breaking record highs. But the spotlight is not only on this precious metal — it’s also on the Swiss franc (CHF). Switzerland is the world’s largest gold re-export hub, and the USD/CHF pair is now at a critical turning point. Will USD/CHF bounce from strong support for a correction, or fall further in step with gold’s rally?
Why does gold directly affect CHF and USD/CHF?
Switzerland is not a major gold producer, but it is the world’s largest refining and re-export center. Most of the gold traded globally passes through Switzerland.
Source: Wikipedia
How it works:
- When gold rises, Switzerland’s export value increases, the trade surplus grows, CHF strengthens, and USD/CHF usually falls.
- When gold falls, exports decline, CHF weakens, and USD/CHF usually rises.
Since 2016, the correlation between USD/CHF and XAU/USD has been strongly negative (ranging from -23.8 to -81.4). At present, it stands at -79.1, showing an almost perfectly inverse relationship.
Source: Myfxbook
USD/CHF: At a key balance point
Currently, USD/CHF is in an interesting balance:
- Gold’s strength continues to support CHF.
- At the same time, technical indicators suggest a possible rebound in USD/CHF.
Monthly chart: USD/CHF has reached a strong support zone around 0.71 – 0.78, a level that has triggered several bounces in the past. This area often sees reversal reactions.
Source: Tradingview
Daily chart: RSI shows bullish divergence (price making lower lows while RSI makes higher lows), signaling weaker selling pressure. This increases the chance of a technical rebound toward the nearest resistance zone around 0.81.
Source: IUX
Two trading scenarios for USD/CHF
Scenario 1: CHF stays strong, USD/CHF drops
- If gold keeps rising and breaks new highs, USD/CHF may fall below the 0.783 – 0.786 support zone and extend lower.
- Strategy: Wait to sell after USD/CHF clearly breaks support and confirms a retest.
Scenario 2: USD/CHF rebounds from support
- If the monthly support holds and the daily RSI divergence plays out, USD/CHF could stage a short-term recovery.
- Strategy: Short-term traders can take advantage of this correction; for daily traders, wait for price to break above 0.814 – 0.817, targeting nearby resistance levels above.
Source: IUX
No matter the scenario, traders should keep in mind: the long-term trend of USD/CHF is still down. Since the pair is now at a critical support level, trades should be approached with quick profit-taking and strict risk management.
