EUR/USD: Forex Technical Crossroads

The EUR/USD currency pair is at a key point, hovering around 1.16. The coming days may prove decisive in determining the medium-term direction. Both technical analysis across multiple intervals and divergent macroeconomic data from Europe and the United States paint a picture of a market full of tension and uncertainty.

The Battle for Dominance on Multiple Fronts

Monthly Interval

A broader view of the market, starting with the monthly chart (1M), shows that the EUR/USD pair has been in a clear uptrend since the beginning of 2025. The quotes managed to break through key moving averages and the price is currently testing support in the EMA 200 area (around 1.1542). The RSI indicator is at a high level (above 60), which indicates strong upward momentum, but it is approaching the overbought zone (above 70). This configuration suggests that although the long-term trend remains upward, the current price level poses a serious challenge for bulls and may herald a period of consolidation or correction.

Daily Interval

The daily interval clearly shows that since the beginning of 2025, the currency pair has been in a well-established upward trend, which is confirmed by the arrangement of moving averages (faster above slower ones). However, recent weeks have brought a correction that has brought the price to a key test. The price is currently finding support at the 100-day moving average (100EMA, orange line), which has almost served as a dynamic level of defence for buyers since August. Defending this floor is crucial for maintaining bullish sentiment in the medium term. The Stochastic RSI indicator also points to a potential rebound and continuation of the uptrend. After entering oversold territory (below 20) at the end of September, it is now clearly turning upwards, signalling a weakening of supply pressure and a possible return of buyer strength.

In summary, the technical picture on the daily chart is cautiously optimistic. The nearest target for the demand side remains a renewed attack on the recent highs in the 1.19 area. If the key support at 100EMA is broken, the next significant level of defence will be the 200-day moving average (200EMA, dark-orange line) around 1.137.

4-hour Interval

After a sharp decline in the first half of October, the currency pair recorded an impressive rebound from a low of around 1.155. This dynamic upward movement brought the price back to a key zone. Currently, the price is consolidating within the exponential moving average ribbon. This is a typical situation where the market is looking for balance after a sharp movement. These averages now act as a resistance zone - the price is trying to break above them. Staying above these averages would be a sign of buyer strength. The MACD indicator confirms the short-term bullish sentiment. The MACD line (blue) has crossed its signal line (orange) from below and is above zero. In addition, the histogram (bars) is positive, indicating momentum on the buyers' side.

The 4-hour chart signals that buyers have taken the initiative in the short term. The key challenge now is to overcome resistance in the form of the moving average band (1.168). Breaking and staying above this level would open the way to test resistance around 1.175. However, if sellers manage to defend this zone, a return to consolidation or a retest of lower levels is possible.