Gold Sets Record High
Gold (XAU/USD) rose more than 1.1% in the latest session to reach $4,570, setting a new all-time high. The rally was fueled by a weaker US dollar and safe-haven demand, as investors adjust expectations for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate path.
Macro Data Supports Rate-Cut Expectations and Gold Prices
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) for December added only 50,000 jobs, below the forecast of 66,000 and down from 56,000 in November. Meanwhile, the manufacturing PMI fell to 47.9, below expectations, signaling a slowdown in US economic growth and increasing pressure on the Fed to consider easing policy.
In this context, Fed Chair Jerome Powell revealed that the Fed had been served with subpoenas by the US Department of Justice. The subpoenas relate to congressional hearings on the Fed headquarters renovation project, amid tensions with the Trump administration. Powell emphasized that this is political pressure and stressed that the Fed will continue to set monetary policy based on data and the public interest, without being influenced by threats or interference.
These developments have weakened the US dollar and the US stock market, impacting gold prices. Along with geopolitical tensions in Venezuela and Iran, gold is not only serving as an inflation hedge but also as a safe haven amid rising concerns about confidence in the US financial system.
Technical View
- Gold remains in a strong uptrend on the daily chart (1D). From a Price Action perspective, the price has clearly broken out of a rectangular consolidation zone around $4,550. Consecutive green candles show buyers in control, maintaining a higher high–higher low structure.
- The Bollinger Bands confirm the trend as the price “walks the upper band.” However, the widening gap between the price and the 14-day SMA signals a possible technical pullback to the middle band around $4,430 to consolidate the uptrend. The ADX (~30) indicates a clear trend, not just market noise.
- Momentum remains positive (~262), confirming strong buying pressure. However, the RSI has reached 69.2, close to overbought, suggesting short-term profit-taking could limit further rapid gains. Still, in a strong uptrend, RSI can remain overbought for an extended period.
Trading Scenarios
- Bullish scenario: If gold holds above the support level around $4,550, it could target $4,600 – $4,650. The optimal strategy is to buy on dips rather than chasing new highs.
- Bearish scenario: If gold fails to hold $4,550 or if negative news emerges, the price could pull back to $4,400 – $4,300.
Summary
XAU/USD remains in a medium-term uptrend, supported by safe-haven demand and expectations of Fed easing. Investors should monitor macro data and watch the key ~$4,550 support level to plan their trading scenarios.
