RSI 解读：动量、背离与 70/30 迷思

相对强弱指数（RSI）衡量价格变动速度。如何正确解读——以及为何「70 卖出」是散户交易中最昂贵的过度简化。

更新于 July 2026 · 阅读需9分钟

RSI 实际衡量什么

RSI compares the average size of recent up-moves against recent down-moves and compresses the result into a 0–100 scale. Above 70 is conventionally “overbought”, below 30 “oversold”. What it really measures is momentum — how one-sided the last N bars have been.

RSI = 100 − 100 / (1 + avg gain / avg loss)

PriceRSI 14Overbought 70Oversold 30

下方为 RSI 14 的价格——阴影带为 30–70 中性区。 · Illustrative data — past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results.

70/30 迷思

In a strong uptrend, RSI can sit above 70 for weeks while price doubles. Selling the first overbought reading is how traders short the strongest markets on the chart. Overbought means the move is fast — it does not mean the move is over.

Rule that survives contact with real markets: in an uptrend, treat RSI dips toward 40–50 as pullback buy zones. Reserve the classic 70/30 reversal reading for ranging markets.

背离——价值最高的信号

When price makes a new high but RSI makes a lower high, the move is running on fewer participants — bearish divergence. New price low with a higher RSI low is bullish divergence. Divergences don't time the turn precisely, but they flag exhaustion earlier than any crossover.

Confirm divergence with structure: wait for the trendline or last swing to actually break.
Higher timeframes produce more reliable divergences than 1-minute noise.
Combine with the 50-EMA trend filter to avoid counter-trend knife-catching.